What+Causes+Democratiza

Summary by Sonja E. Kelly · Development does not cause democratization (Przeworski) · Incidence of oil reduces likelihood of democratization (Barro, Ross, Fish) · Muslim countries less likely to be democratic (Fish) · British colonial heritage increases likelihood of democracy (Weiner, Payne) · Are these causal relationships, or explained by something else (i.e. rent-seeking v. oil wealth) · Modernization caused democracy (Lipset) · Democracy correlates with development (widely-asserted) · Primary education correlates with democracy (Barro) · Any of the other correlates of economic development could constitute the causal link between development and democracy (i.e. increased education, equality, urbanization, working in factories, weakening of loyalty) · Perhaps democratization is more likely with equal wealth distribution, but this is not necessarily widely empirically supported. · Capital mobility perhaps could increase democratization, because people have more control over their money. Thus, governments feel pressure not to tax too much and to make people feel satisfied with their participation. · **Model 1:** (Boix and Acemoglu/Robinson) The most important distinction in society is between the rich and the poor. Thus the poor will be in favor of high taxes for the purposes of wealth redistribution. Applies more to Western Europe/Latin America. Higher equality leads to higher propensity for democracy. · **Model 2:** The most important distinction in society is between the elite ruler(s) and the ruled. Applies more to Africa, Eastern Europe, ME, Asia. Olson’s “state as a stationary bandit” is an example of this. Rulers tax and enjoy power, but are constrained by needing to provide public goods. Democracy arises “when the members of the winning coalition can benefit themselves by increasing its size” (327). Democracy will follow once this coalition reaches its tipping point. Democracy is elite-led. · There is not an easy answer—democratization can arise differently in different contexts. That’s why none of us can agree. · Two different contexts: the historical period and the type of regime democracy replaces (for more on the penumbras of these differences see pp. 330-331) · The variance in explanation of democratization does not mean that we should only use case studies, but it should force us to come up with better terms. “Democratization” is too loaded and fuzzy.
 * Barbara Geddes, “What Causes Democratization”**
 * Context**: there continues to be debate about whether increased economic growth means increased possibility of democratization. Geddes suggests that “the reason results have been somewhat limited so far is that the phenomenon we label democratization actually includes several different causal processes. Other scholars are saying:
 * I. Investigating the Process: Correlation Causes b/t Development & Democracy**
 * II. Democratization as Strategic Interactions between Elites and Citizens**
 * III. Disaggregating Democratization**
 * //Two research agenda suggestions: first, test causal mechanisms empirically, and second, create models to carefully explain the specifics of democratization.//**